I expect next year’s Tech IPO exit value to beat 2021. Here’s why 👇🏻

Most equity capital markets pros think back fondly on 2021. Yes, in hindsight, Tech valuations were overvalued. But when the music was playing, it was playing loudly.

As a reminder, in 2021, we saw:

--> 296 VC-backed IPOs produce $680B in IPO exit value, according to PitchBook.

--> A rough estimate puts total IPO underwriting fees at about $3B (12% float * 3.5% fee).

--> And that doesn’t even include fees from pre-IPO secondaries and post-IPO follow-ons.

ECM desks live for IPO years like 2021. But they don’t come along often. Since 2021, we’ve averaged 43 VC-backed IPOs per year and $23B of exit value, according to Pitchbook.

So why do I think 2026 tech IPO activity looks more like 2021 than 2024? Check the Caplight IPO Tracker, where we monitor 6 key steps companies take on the path to going public.

Our tracker is fuller now than at any point since we’ve maintained it (about 3 years). The combined value of companies in the tracker doubled from $1.4T to $2.7T in the past 12 months.

Here are the signals that stood out, and select companies that crossed each IPO readiness milestone in 2025:


🧮 Hired a CFO (+$332B EV to our Tracker):

xAI hired Morgan Stanley banker Anthony Armstrong as CFO, per TechCrunch.

Deel hired ex-Credit Karma Joe Kauffman as CFO, per the company's blog.


🏦 Hired I-Banks and Lawyers (+$391B EV):

Anthropic hired Wilson Sonsini Goodrich & Rosati this month to prepare for a potential IPO, per Financial Times.

Discord tapped Goldman Sachs and J.P. Morgan as IPO-advisors, reported by Bloomberg.


💭 Rumored IPO Plans (+$1,451B EV, at current valuation for SpaceX and OpenAI):

OpenAI signaled IPO plans at up to $1T valuation, reported by Reuters.

SpaceX is targeting to raise more than $30 billion at a $1.5T valuation reported by Bloomberg.

Of course, just because a private company is ready to go public doesn’t mean it wants to. There are plenty of execs at these companies who have claimed they never want to go public.

What do you think, is it feasible to hit 2021 IPO levels next year? Or am I just manifesting animal spirits into existence?


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DISCLAIMER: This communication is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or investment products. Consult with your financial advisor or an investment professional before making any investment decisions.

External sources:

PitchBook NVCA Venture Monitor 2021: https://pitchbook.brightspotcdn.com/d3/68/fbd8cb67a53285a185207b6e4316/q4-2021-pitchbook-nvca-venture-monitor.pdf

XAI: https://techcrunch.com/2025/10/07/xai-hires-former-morgan-stanley-banker-anthony-armstrong-as-cfo/

Deel: https://www.deel.com/blog/new-cfo-announcement/
https://www.ft.com/content/3254fa30-5bdb-4c30-8560-7cd7ebbefc5f?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Discord: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-03-26/chat-app-discord-is-said-to-work-with-goldman-jpmorgan-on-planned-ipo?utm_source=chatgpt.com

Bytedance: https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/tiktok-owner-bytedance-sets-valuation-over-330-billion-revenue-grows-sources-say-2025-08-27/

Canva: https://fortune.com/2025/08/22/canva-billionaire-founders-minting-overnight-millionaires-employee-share-sale/

SpaceX: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-12-09/spacex-said-to-pursue-2026-ipo-raising-far-above-30-billion

OpenAI: https://www.reuters.com/business/openai-lays-groundwork-juggernaut-ipo-up-1-trillion-valuation-2025-10-29/?utm_source=chatgpt.com