Nov 6, 2025
AI valuations are soaring. So why are private AI multiples shrinking?
Many AI valuations have soared. But by one metric, private AI companies have gotten cheaper. How?
Revenue appears to be growing even faster than valuations for the top private AI companies.
The Information reported earlier this week that Anthropic is on track to grow revenue by 14x over the next three years. Check out how multiples have changed based on Caplight secondary-market valuation data and The Information’s revenue reporting:
2024: $0.5B revenue → $35B valuation (as of Dec 31 '24), implying a 70x EV / Rev multiple.
2025E: $5B revenue → $233B valuation (as of Nov 4 '25), implying a 47x EV / Rev multiple.
2028E: $70B revenue → Would imply a $3.3T valuation if current EV / Rev multiple holds 🤯
Anthropic’s EV / revenue multiple fell by a third from 2024 to 2025E, and it’s not alone.
xAI's EV / Rev down 81% (per Reuters, link below)
Anysphere’s EV / Rev down 65% (per The Information, link below)
Groq’s EV / Rev down 52% (per The Information, link below)
In public markets, EV / Rev multiples are rising after Q3 earnings. According to Yahoo Finance and Edgar filings:
Alphabet at 7.73x, up from 6.00x a year ago (+28.8%)
Microsoft at 14.19x, up from 13.02x (+9.0%)
Amazon at 3.49x, up from 3.31x (+5.4%)
Meta at 9.66x, up from 9.51x (+1.6%)
Apple at 9.35x, up from 9.24x (+1.2%)
What do you think? Is the private market mispricing the revenue expansion of AI companies? Or are falling multiples an indication of more room to run?
DISCLAIMER: Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Investments in private companies are illiquid, as there is a limited secondary market for private company shares.
External sources:
xAI → https://www.reuters.com/business/musks-xai-expects-annual-earnings-over-13-billion-by-2029-bloomberg-reports-2025-06-06/#:~:text=Thehttps://www.reuters.com/business/musks-xai-expects-annual-earnings-over-13-billion-by-2029-bloomberg-reports-2025-06-06/#:~:text=The%20impact%20of%20their%20hostilities,attracting%20top%20generative%20AI%20researchers.&text=XAI%20plans%20to%20spend%20$18,media%20reports%20earlier%20this%20week.
Anysphere → https://www.theinformation.com/articles/cursor-maker-anysphere-considers-investment-offers-30-billion-valuation?rc=augu8u
Groq → https://www.theinformation.com/articles/nvidia-challenger-groq-discusses-6-billion-valuation?rc=augu8u