Has the global trade war dumped ice on an otherwise hot pre-IPO market?

🥶 too soon to fully answer this question with data… but probably 🥶

Earlier this month, we released our Q1 2025 Pre-IPO Market Update to our subscribers. A link to the full report can be found in the comments below.

We saw a hot start to the year. Here are some highlights:

📈 A basket of the 20 most liquid pre-IPO companies returned +13% in Q1 vs. a 9% decline for the Nasdaq.

💰 Transaction volume for the quarter surpassed $500M, a 35% increase over Q4 2024.

🤖 Secondary market buyers lifted private AI company valuations on the back of big funding rounds and M&A consolidation. Public AI-exposed companies sold off for the quarter.

But there’s risk on the horizon, which hasn’t fully shown up yet in trading volume:

🏦 Periods of high inflation and/or elevated borrowing rates have historically been negative for pre-IPO valuations. Pre-IPO valuations fell 50% when the Fed began raising rates in 2022.

🔻 New bid interest as a % of total buy/sell interest declined from 55% in February to about 40% by mid-April, signaling there is less buy appetite in the market to stabilize prices.

Send us an email to contact@caplight.com if you want data insights like this in real time.

Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Investments in private companies are illiquid, as there is a limited secondary market for private company shares.