SaaSpocalypse? Not in private markets.

If you’re a public software company investor, this hasn’t been your year. The Bessemer Cloud index shows a drop of -23.2% ytd, wiping out trillions in market cap. Jefferies coined it "SaaSpocalypse."

📉 How’d we get here:
- January 12: Anthropic launched Cowork, an agent that automates enterprise workflows.
- February 3: "Black Tuesday for Software." IGV drops 13% in a single session, Bloomberg runs a piece titled "Get Me Out."
- March: ~$2 trillion in public software market cap, gone in a month. A war contributed to that… but still.

But private markets YTD? Barely a scratch… so far.

We ran an experiment. The six most-traded private SaaS companies matched against their closest public comps, tracked year to date. The data tells a striking story.

🧑‍🤝‍🧑 The comps (Jan 1 → Mar 30, 2026):
- Notion +15% vs. Atlassian -59% (+74pp spread)
- Databricks +17% vs. Snowflake -30% (+47pp spread)
- Celonis +12% vs. ServiceNow -31% (+43pp spread)
- Rippling flat vs. Workday -40% (+40pp spread)
- Canva -6% vs. Adobe -31% (+25pp spread)
- Arctic Wolf -9% vs. CrowdStrike -19% (+10pp spread)

Every private company outperformed its public comp(s). Average spread: ~40 percentage points.

💡 So what's going on?

Public market volatility is elevated. Fictional research memos, Anthropic's comms team, and X posts are moving entire categories of public companies.

Private markets are insulated from these short-term shocks. The fundamentals of both are probably similar to where we started the year. The difference is public investor sentiment is off, and it's easy to click sell on Robinhood.

🧠 Is this good for equity capital markets?

Don’t get me wrong. Anthropic could very well be the Grim Reaper coming for all SaaS businesses, and public prices today could be closer to intrinsic value than where we started the year.

But it's also a huge reason private companies won't go public.

Operating privately lets you innovate without catering to short-term trading whims. You AI-proof your business model while answering to your board, not the entire public market. If you're not capital-intensive and you have scale, why would you?

And that’s why having the right infrastructure around private markets is so important.

Disclaimer: This communication is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or investment products. Consult with your financial advisor or an investment professional before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Investments in private companies are illiquid, as there is a limited secondary market for private company shares.

Sources:
- Bloomberg, "What's Behind the SaaSpocalypse Plunge in Software Stocks" (Feb 4, 2026)
- Bloomberg, "'Get Me Out'" Black Tuesday coverage (Feb 3, 2026)
- Bain & Company, "Why SaaS Stocks Have Dropped" (Feb 24, 2026)
- VentureBeat, Cowork enterprise launch coverage (Feb 24, 2026)
- All six private company prices (Databricks, Notion, Rippling, Celonis, Canva, Arctic Wolf): from Caplight
- All six public comp prices (SNOW, MNDY, TEAM, NOW, ADBE, CRWD): from Pitchbook
- Bessemer Cloud Index https://www.bvp.com/bvp-nasdaq-emerging-cloud-index