From $400B to $1T in six months; what our data says about secondary market pricing for SpaceX. 🚀

A little over a month ago, The Information reported that SpaceX was targeting an IPO. One week later, CFO Bret Johnsen confirmed it.

Then the “T” word started being thrown around. A trillion-dollar valuation IPO seemed audacious, given a tender earlier in 2025 valued the company at $400B. (Reported by TechCrunch, source in comments)

But that was last year.

Fast forward to today: SpaceX is now the first $1T VC-backed private company tracked by Caplight, based on institutional-size secondary market activity. 🎉

Below are some key milestones over the past wild 6 months.

💰 Jul ‘25: a tender offer values SpaceX at about $400B. (TC)

📈 Jul through Oct ‘25: $150M of secondary market demand consistently values the company between $400B and $450B. (per our data)

🛰️ Oct ‘25: Elon Musk announces data centers, in spppaaacccceeee. (per X)

📈 Dec ‘25: SpaceX launches another tender offer valuing the company at $800B. (The Information)

🏆 Dec ‘25: The Wall Street Journal reported that SpaceX told employees it is targeting a 2026 IPO.

📈 Jan ‘26: Institutional buy interest and sell interest drives Caplight’s estimated MarketPrice to a valuation of $1T.


So… how do you think IPO book building is going? I’d love to hear the bear case.


Disclaimer: This communication is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or investment products. Consult with your financial advisor or an investment professional before making any investment decisions. Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Investments in private companies are illiquid, as there is a limited secondary market for private company shares.

Sources:

https://techcrunch.com/2025/07/08/spacex-in-talks-to-raise-new-funding-at-400b-valuation/

https://www.theinformation.com/articles/spacex-tells-investors-aiming-late-2026-ipo?rc=yye4bf

https://www.wsj.com/business/spacex-tells-staff-it-is-preparing-for-a-potential-ipo-next-year-ae54778d?mod=hp_lead_pos5