Turns out taking sides does cost you. Here’s how much it’s cost Elon’s companies.

Since April 2, 2025, a basket of Elon’s private companies has trailed the price performance of our Top 20 pre-IPO company index by 39%.

In December, we published the Elon Index, an equal-weight composite of @ SpaceX, @xAI, @ Neuralink, @ The Boring Company, and @ Tesla. Price movement of the private companies is driven by secondary market activity.

At the time we originally published the Elon Index, it had outperformed the Nasdaq by 3x since the November election.

What a difference a year makes!

📉 Elon Index price lags since April 2 ‘25:

• Caplight Top 20 Private Index up 50%

• QQQ up 26%

• Elon Crossover Index (includes Tesla) up 19%

• Elon Private Index up only 10%

What’s maybe more interesting, is that private market demand for Elon companies has also declined, on a relative basis, year-over-year.

🔻 Demand for Elon Index constituents drops:

• $510M of bid volume for Musk companies in Q3 2024

• $100M bid volume for Musk’s companies in Q3 2025

Based on @ Caplight data.

But don’t worry too much for Mr. Musk! This year alone, his companies have added the GDP of Portugal (~$250B) in value, and slower gains this year might just be a correction after last year’s massive jumps.

What’s your take? Long or short the Elon Index?

Past performance is not indicative of future returns. Investments in private companies are illiquid, as there is a limited secondary market for private company shares.